Climate crisis plunges Madagascar into famine
From Jason
Climate crisis plunges Madagascar into famine | (wochenendrebell.de)
Even before summer really begins, it is clear that 2024 will be a devastating year for the global climate. In the spring, the unstable polar vortex and the Greenland ice melt brought heavy snowfall to Europeans, now North America is groaning under the consequences of a historic heat wave with acute water shortages, while the IPCC paints an even gloomier picture of the second half of this century. However, the climate crisis is currently hitting Madagascar most catastrophically.
Before I begin: A famine is basically a pretty cruel thing. I know what such reports can trigger when dealing with them in detail and frustrated resignation is the last thing we need to counter this catastrophe – so be warned at this point: This article describes the devastating situation in Madagascar, it is about the connections to colonial rule and the climate crisis and about frightening figures and forecasts. Nevertheless, I am of the opinion that the topic must be on the agenda immediately.
Colonial Rule: The Beginning of the End
The Republic of Madagascar is an island nation off the east coast of Africa and is located in the Indian Ocean. It is more than one and a half times the size of Germany and is populated by about 27 million people. Madagascar is a democracy on paper, but many people are unable to exercise their right to vote in practice, with child labour, unlawful arrests and unfair trials.
Until 1960, Madagascar was still a French colony and this is where the connections with the famine that now prevails there begin: In a ten-year war of conquest that was incredibly brutal even compared to other colonies, France subjugated the Malagasy population: incumbent politicians were executed or exiled into exile, entire villages were burned down and the people living there were cruelly killed. Although 70% of the people living as slaves until the French conquest were “liberated”, quite a few were subsequently abused as cannon fodder in the First World War and forced to serve in the war.
French propaganda poster
But that was not all, the island was also completely turned upside down in other respects during the occupation: the colonial power erased entire landscapes, or simply reshaped them according to their needs. As an isolated island, Madagascar has long had a completely unique vegetation that cannot be found anywhere else in the world, but a large part had to give way because the colonial rulers wanted to grow tobacco, wine, coconut and other crops there. This form of land use, among other things, is taking its toll today – more than 60 years after the end of colonial rule.
Wenn der Dipol nicht mehr funktioniert…
Because it’s too dry – much too dry. And not just recently. From 2015 to 2017, East and South Africa were hit by an unprecedented drought disaster, some countries declared a state of emergency, economic losses and power outages. In some places, maize became four times more expensive within a year, resulting in extreme hunger. At the time, the cause was a strong El Niño event and the so-called warm water dipole in the Indian Ocean.
The warm-water dipole refers to the phenomenon that the Indian Ocean between East Africa and Southeast Asia oscillates back and forth between two states within a few years. In a positive state, the water off the coast of Africa is warmer than that off Southeast Asia. As a result, it evaporates more easily and intensifies winds that bring abundant rain to Africa. In the negative state, it is exactly the opposite and then it becomes drier in Africa – this is quite normal so far. As a rule, however, this commuting offers enough time for recovery between two dry states.
The original two states of the hot water dipole, positive on the left and negative on the right
But the main reason why the current situation is so catastrophic is undoubtedly man-made global warming, because the warm-water dipole no longer works as it used to – or actually it does, but the much more powerful development of global warming has long since overshadowed its cycle. Rainfall over Africa is becoming increasingly rare, and with it the chances of recovering from droughts. At the same time, however, these droughts are becoming more and more severe. Thus, the exceptional situation in Madagascar from 2015 to 2017 gradually became normal. For Southeast Asia, on the other hand, a warmer world means heavier rainfall.
Due to its geographical location, but above all due to its history, Madagascar is obviously disproportionately affected by the climate crisis – it is one of the so-called MAPAs, the Most Affected People and Areas. On the one hand, the forest is still shrinking massively today due to climate change and targeted deforestation, and by 2070 Madagascar could even be completely forest-free. On the other hand, the island is severely affected by tropical cyclones, such as Gafilo in 2004 and Indlala in 2007, which could be exacerbated by global warming.
These are the Warming Stripes for Madagascar from 1901 to 2020.
Ed Hawkings (Université des lectures), https://showyourstripes.info/
However, the drought catastrophe, which has been smouldering for years, is now escalating completely, Madagascar is experiencing the worst drought in 40 years, and in some areas it has hardly rained for three years. Sandstorms have also rendered many fields infertile, and the desert is advancing further and further – the consequence of this so-called Sahel syndrome is a historic crop failure. According to the UN World Food Programme, there have already been hunger-related deaths. The government expects harvest losses of at least 60% compared to the past five years in southern Madagascar.
“Families are suffering and there are already people dying of acute hunger – this is not because of war or conflict, but because of climate change”
David Beasley, Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP)
While heat waves are a frequent climate-related cause of death that mainly cost the lives of people over the age of 60 and those with pre-existing conditions (as is currently the case in North America, for example), the climate crisis is killing children in particular due to famine. They are also the most affected now, the few existing clinics are full of children and toddlers under the age of five who suffer from malnutrition.
Forest areas could contain and mitigate droughts, because trees store water and thus increase the amount of precipitation in a region. But there are fewer and fewer of these, on the one hand because the populations were ruthlessly destroyed during European colonial rule (and also afterwards), and on the other hand because drought as a result of deforestation is also one of its causes – an extremely destructive vicious circle that literally devastates entire swathes of land.
14,000 people in acute danger of death, 500,000 threatened
The consequences of this climatic change are incredibly terrible, even if the figures are usually not reliably collected and should therefore be interpreted cautiously (as of June 2021).
1,350,000 (1.35 million) people are affected by the famine and need help.
500,000 (five hundred thousand) people are threatened with death by starvation in the next few months.
14,000 (fourteen thousand) people are currently in acute danger of death due to hunger.
There is a threat of a veritable mass death. Many people are trying to flee to the cities where the food supply is most likely to be maintained, but some are already too weak to do so. Older people have often been left behind in villages, other people stuff leaves, mud and clay into their stomachs and children are so starved that sagging skin folds can be seen on their limbs. The head of the UN World Food Programme, David Beasley, spoke of scenes like from horror films. 16.5% of children under the age of five in Madagascar are currently suffering from malnutrition, twice as many as four months ago.
Helpers who are on the road with mobile clinics tell of encounters with mothers who have already lost several children to hunger in recent months. Parallel to the famine, malaria is currently on the rise in Madagascar, and its spread is also favored by the high temperatures. There are also repeated outbreaks of leprosy, measles or even the plague. The climate crisis is now putting the finishing touches to this society: criminal gangs are active in many regions, making it even more difficult to escape through robberies.
Madagascar’s contribution to the climate crisis below average
With annual emissions of 1.2 tonnes of CO2equivalents per person (i.e. emissions whose greenhouse effect is equivalent to that of 1.2 tonnes of CO2 Madagascar hardly contributes to global warming, it does not even exceed its climate-friendly annual budget. The industrialised countries are therefore primarily to blame for the humanitarian catastrophe, as they drive up the average temperature of the earth by emitting greenhouse gases, causing a lack of precipitation in Africa. That is not fair.
The story continues in a truly tragic way: the industrialized countries once made Madagascar vulnerable to droughts and famines through exploitation during colonialism, and now it is once again the industrialized countries that are completing the work by inaction in the face of the climate crisis. The motives are completely different, the situations cannot be compared with each other. Only the consequences are similar. Where once social Darwinism and hatred killed, indifference now takes over.
Of course, this man-made horror must not be instrumentalized, not even for the current federal election campaign. In return, however, it must be pointed out in all clarity that the climate crisis and thus the policies of the industrialized countries are causal (and there is no doubt about that) if we do not want it to remain with “thoughts and prayers” again – although at the moment not even enough attention is needed for this.
The worst is yet to come…
The famine has probably not yet reached its peak, and the drought is not expected to ease at least until October. So the worst is yet to come for the people of Madagascar. And we are not talking about 2050 or 2030 – if measures are not taken immediately to contain the famine, the number of people on the verge of starvation could have doubled by October. Half a million people could be at risk of starvation in the next few months.
It is understandable and completely clear that we all feel uncomfortable when we see pictures of cities damaged by tornadoes or places under water. It is just as clear that these phenomena are also serious problems and cost human lives. But in purely numerical terms – and yes, I am aware that the purely numbers-based view falls short – all this is nothing but a drop in the ocean. The two big killers in the context of the climate catastrophe are famines and epidemics.
If we don’t slow down warming, by 2090 a third of agricultural land will be unusable, another third would be at risk – not much will be left. In addition, there is an unequal distribution: while some countries hardly lose any money or even gain fertile land due to a warmer climate, others lose up to 95% of their arable land. Climate activists are occasionally accused of wanting to lead humanity back to the Middle Ages. Yet it is current politics that is catapulting our species into medieval conditions with famines, epidemics and conflicts.
Well before 2090, namely by 2050, a decline in global food production is expected due to lower yields, while demand will increase by 14% per decade. The number of undernourished people is already rising again from year to year, after initially falling since the beginning of the new millennium. In 2030, it will be higher again than in 2005. The goal of defeating world hunger is thus receding into the distant future. Humanity will fail miserably to achieve the goals of the 2030 Agenda, which include defeating world hunger.
This is also reflected in the number of premature deaths. Currently, about 315,000 people die directly from the consequences of the climate crisis worldwide every year, and by 2030 this number will increase by another 250,000 per year.
The climate crisis will not do us the favor of making itself known with the big bang. Anyone who thinks that action will be taken as soon as the consequences are obvious enough is mistaken. If 14,000 people starving to death are not enough, then nothing will be enough anytime soon – not without more pressure from the population. The fact that the population of the Global North is not aware of the enormous number of premature deaths caused by global warming also influences climate policy. Could Peter Altmaier still afford to say things like “Climate protection will only work if our prosperity is not endangered by it” if the population knew how cruel the price of this prosperity is? If so, then we are truly lost.
Donations alone are not enough, and we don’t need white saviorism in the belief that the global North can pay its debt just like that. But if you want to and can, donate to reputable organizations that are trying to contain the famine in Madagascar, such as Welthungerhilfe or the Madagascar Foundation. However, the most effective way to combat the cause remains to do so. Fight for climate justice.
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